Holiday spending 2026: the average household plans to spend $1,654. Here's how to set your own budget

What the forecasts say

The big holiday spending forecasts for 2026 are out, and they point the same way: Americans expect to spend a little more than last year. On October 15, the National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast that November and December retail sales will grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion. Last year they rose 3.1% to $972 billion. The NRF's figure isn't adjusted for inflation, and it leaves out car dealers, gas stations and restaurants.

The same day, Deloitte published its 2026 holiday retail survey. It found the average household expects to spend $1,654 this season, up 4% from $1,595 in 2025. That splits into $988 on retail goods, up 10%, and $666 on holiday activities, down 4%.

Online, Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion in US spending from November 1 to December 31, up 6.7%, with $21.3 billion of it through buy now, pay later (BNPL).

At a glance

• NRF: holiday retail sales up 4.2% to $1.013 trillion.
• Deloitte: average household spend of $1,654, up 4%.
• Adobe: $275.1 billion online, including $21.3 billion on BNPL.
• Big gap by income: Deloitte found households earning $200,000 or more expect to spend $3,607, and those under $50,000 expect $693.
• Plans can change: last year Gallup's average planned gift spend fell from $1,007 in October to $778 in November.

Who's spending what

Deloitte surveyed 4,000 US consumers between August 26 and September 10, 2026. Beyond the averages, it found 28% expect their holiday budget to be used up by the end of October, the highest share in six years, and one in four had already bought holiday items during June promotions. Half plan to give an experience as a gift, such as a restaurant meal or event tickets. Shoppers who plan to buy themselves something expect to spend $299 on it, on average.

Survey plans aren't spending. Gallup asks Americans each year how much they expect to spend on Christmas gifts. In 2025 the average was $1,007 in October, then fell to $778 in Gallup's November poll, which Gallup called the biggest midseason drop it had recorded. Lower-income households cut their plans the most, from $651 to $384. We couldn't find a published 2026 Gallup figure when we checked on November 1.

A practical holiday budget

Start with what you can afford, not what the averages say. A simple plan:

• Set one total you can pay without borrowing, from savings or this month's and next month's pay.
• Split it into gifts, food and travel, and extras such as decorations, postage and wrapping.
• List everyone you buy for with a figure next to each name.
• Keep a buffer of about 10% for things you forget.

A worked example

This is an illustration, not a real case. The Lees have $1,200 to spend. They put $700 towards gifts, $350 towards food and travel, and $150 towards extras, then hold $120 of the gift money back as a buffer. That leaves $580 for gifts: $100 each for two children, $60 each for four adults, and $140 for teachers, neighbors and a secret Santa.

If they put the whole $1,200 on a credit card charging 22% APR and paid $100 a month, it would take them about 14 months to clear it and cost roughly $170 in interest. Paying from savings, or spreading the cost through a store's BNPL plan without interest that they're sure they can repay on time, avoids that.

What to do now

1. Set your total this week, before Black Friday deals start pulling you in.
2. Write the list of people and amounts, and keep it on your phone.
3. Track every purchase against it as you go.
4. Treat BNPL as borrowing. Note each payment date. Missed payments can bring late fees.
5. Agree limits with family, such as a secret Santa or a spending cap.

Questions

How much does the average American spend on the holidays?

Deloitte's 2026 survey puts the average household at $1,654, including $988 on gifts and other retail goods. That's an average of what people plan to spend, not a target.

Is the NRF forecast adjusted for inflation?

No. It uses nominal figures, so part of the growth reflects higher prices.

Is BNPL a good way to pay for gifts?

It can spread the cost without interest on some plans, but several plans at once are easy to lose track of. Only use it if you're sure you can make every payment.

Ways to save

Gift cards make it easy to stick to a set amount per person, and Giftcards.com is on Promo Magpie. For a treat under $25, Peet's Coffee and The Unemployed Philosophers Guild are on our list too.

Sources: NRF, October 15, 2026: holiday sales forecast, Deloitte, October 15, 2026: holiday spending set to increase, Adobe, September 2026: holiday shopping forecast, Gallup, December 4, 2025: holiday spending plans plummet